martes, 30 de abril de 2019

Getting a new governmet in Spain

More than 175 seats are required to secure enough support for a new government in Spain, since congress has 350 seats.
PSOE (Socialist Workers Party of Spain) was the winner in the last elections, but it got 123 seats, so fell short of a majority. The leader of PSOE is the incumbent Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez.

What to do now?

1st Option: Two parties agreement

Well, the obvious solution is that PSOE and Ciudadanos (a centrist party with 57 seats in Congress) make 180 seats.  Banco Santanter (one of the two biggest banks in Spain) in a report sent to big clients stated that such an agreement would please the markets. But Ciudadanos has sworn not to support PSOE to form a government. But if they form a government, they will be willing to negotiate big deals at state level.

2nd Option: "Frankestein government"

It is weird, but not impossible.
PSOE (123 seats) + Podemos (35 seats) + ERC (15 seats) + Guanyem (7 seats) = 180 seats

-Podemos is a populist left-wing party whose leader, Pablo Iglesias, loves comunism and south american populism.
-ERC (Republican Left of Catalonia) is a nationalist catalonian party which supports indepedence for catalonia and whose leader, Oriol Junqueras (now in jail), is accused rebellion and sedition.
-Guanyem is the sister party of Podemos in Catalonia which supports nationalist parties in a way that does not destroy the country but it weakens Spain.

It is known as "Frankestein government", because this parties have contradictory goals and interests.

3rd option: Operation Unthinkable

It's an idea of CEOE (the organisation that represents the big corporations of Spain).  PP (Popular Party, conservative, with 66 seats) and Ciudadanos abstein from voting, so PSOE, at least, gets a majority of votes even if it does not reach 176 seats. It is hard to believe, because Ciudadanos does not seem to accept that idea and the PP has never done it in the last 40 years. It is not expected to happen.

4th option: New elections

Of course there are more options, but they are not likely.

Explanation: In Spain, anything said about politics by big companies can be used like political ammunition by leftist parties. But big companies may be afraid of an looming world public debt crisis and they need a reliable government ready to tackle problems without revolutions.

lunes, 29 de abril de 2019

What is VOX?

I guess you have been reading about the surge of the "far-right" party VOX in Spain.  BBC said this "Spain election: Socialists win amid far-right breakthrough" and The Guardian this "Spanish election: socialists win amid far-right gains for Vox party".
Well... Vox is a populist conservative party.  It got 24 seats out of 350 seats for Congress. Vox opposes radical anti-western feminism, LGTBQ ideology and illegal migration. Vox defends national unity and wants to do away with regional governments, since VOX believes it is dangerous for the national unity of Spain.

Why did it have some success?

-Because in Congress there was not right wing national party.
The "conservative" party PP (Popular Party) left all his ideals related to the protection of heterosexual families, they didn't care about the huge amount of abortions performed in Spain and they don't bother to speak the rise of the amount of transgender minors in Spain and they support the spread of LGTBQ ideology by force in public schools and they suppress freedom of education in schools. In the economic policies the Popular Party supports the encrease of public spending to get out of the economic crisis.
Thus the Popular Party lost more than three million voters and half of its seats in Congress. Vox got 2.6 millions votes.

-Because VOX was labelled as a bunch of extremist and promoted by PSOE (Spanish Socialist Workers Party) and Podemos (a populist leftist party).
Why?  I guess they knew that by spliting right wing voters they could make PP lose. at the same time, they may have scared left wing voters in order to force them to vote for PSOE.  Some polls said that VOX was going to get 34 seats and, even, a piece of fake news said 70 seat. "Mission accomplished".

Fun fact:  PP and VOX got all together 8 millions votes and 90 seats, meanwhile PSOE got 7.4 millions votes and 123 seats.
Why? Spain uses the D'Hondt method to alocate seats, those who get more votes in provinces get more seats than those that they get with a proportional method.