This is just pure speculation. Further research should be made on this subject.
So... some time ago Donald Trump got into the White House. I didn't like the idea of seeing Donald Trump becoming President of United States of America. Many people did not see him coming. It did not make sense that such a tasteless man may win election. He did not look presidential, even he proved that looking presidential was super comically easy.
He was depicted like a con man, a scam artist, a swindler and a failure by his political enemies. People may have pressed charges against him, but he always settled before being found guilty. He was before his electoral victory famous and infamous.
But the cultural environment was in his favour. Surprisingly Hollywood had done the ground work for him. Yes, even if many actors and actress mercilessly criticised him. Hollywood had made con men, scam artists and swindlers the most lovable people on the face of the earth.
I show those movies that made him the best candidate in the race.
The Distinguished Gentleman where a con artist became a congressman and sacrificed his own interests to fight corruption in Congress.
The Wolf of Wall Street where Jordan Belfort scammed poor and rich alike within his reach to make himself, his accomplices and employees wealthy. After a short stay behind bars, Jordan Belfort became a respectable man.
Catch me if you can where a con artist was able to forge bank checks to a prodigious scale and when he was caught, he became helpful in the fight against production of fake bank checks.
The dirty dozen where a dozen of criminals in the army are recruited for a extremelly dangerous mission in World War II, they are successful. All of them but one die in the line of duty. The surviving soldier is exhonerated.
Suicide squad is like The dirty dozen, but the characters have to save the world. Funny fact, the political enemies of Donald Trump dubbed Trump's team the "suicide squad".
The idea in many of these movies is quite the same, "bad guys" are the right people to fight dangerous respectable people after or through redemption.
So... the american people bought from Hollywood a very catholic message, saints may have a bad past, but they work hard for an admirable present and a better future.
US wanted Trump to clean "The swamp" (corruption in Capitol Hill), to fight "unfair" commercial chinese practices, to beat the respectable "wacky" progressive movement in american politics, to get back manufacturing jobs, to build the wall, to get a more conservative Supreme Court, to stop the flow of illegal inmigration...
Will he deliver? Too soon to say... but he's trying and they may soon reelect him.
martes, 23 de julio de 2019
lunes, 27 de mayo de 2019
Francisco de la Torre, almost everlasting.
Francisco De la Torre is the mayor of Málaga (Spain), my hometown. Once again he has won the last mayoral election and it may keep governing four more years with Ciudadanos' support, a centrist party. Mr. De la Torre, who was born in 1942, is the second oldest mayor in Spain. In 1969, he joined Asociación de Amigos de la Universidad de Málaga which lobbied successfully to make the dictatorship found Malaga State University in 1972. In 1972, Mr. De la Torre became president of the Provincial Deputation of Málaga. He supported Franco's dictatorship until the last day and shortly after the death of Franco a split vote (9 to 9) took him out of the Provincial Deputation in 1976, because the rules favoured the oldest candidate and he was the youngest one.
He worked for a while as an agricultural engineer, but he was a polician to the core. He joined Reforma Democrática (right-wing party), however he left it. Then he founded his own party where he was the president and afterwards he made his own party to join UCD (Unión de Centro Democrático) which led Spain to democracy. And... he got elected for Congress in 1977 the one that approved the Constitution of 1978. He helped as a member of provisional government of Andalusia to set the autonomous regional parliament known as Junta de Andalucía.
On 23th of february, Congress was kidnaped by a bunch of Guardias Civiles (some sort militarized policemen), it was a coup d'état and all communications with the outside world were severed. But Francisco de la Torre got a small radio and, while he pretended to have a nap, listened to the radio channel, Cadena Ser in order to hear news. And he carefully transmited any information to the rest of congressmen.
After the putsch, UCD was defeated and torn apart. Francisco de la Torre had to pay some loans given to his party and from 1982 to 1995 kept a low profile in politics without any political post in the administration. But he lobbied to get a high speed train conection for Málaga. In 1995 he was in the PP (Partido Popular or People's Party, a right wing party) and ran as an independent member of the party in the mayoral elections for Málaga city. His party won and his boss, Celia Villalobos (a former comunist militant, by then in PP), became the mayor. She was great campaining, but she lacks of qualifications for the job. However Mr. de la Torre got the Council of urban planning which means that he managed the most important department in the townhall just before the real state bubble. In Málaga province was right in the centre of that bubble which popped in 2007-2008.
Anybody who hears Francisco's voice knows that his is as boring as the ex-vice President of USA, Dick Cheney. But... in 2000 he became mayor of Málaga. And since then many people acknowledge that Mr. De la Torre was a gentleman who hardly never stayed behind closed doors, but who has always avoided political bickering and too high political ambitions. He was able to deal politely with Podemos (a populist leftist party) and with Ciudadanos which is his best ally and maybe the most demanding too. Ciudadanos likes to make any political official involved in corruption cases be sacked. Francisco de la Torre like to keep them longer.
Since 2000 Málaga got the cherished high speed train conection with Madrid and the first line of Málaga underground was built, the bypass roads were lengthened and the Málaga airport and the harbour were enlarged. Málaga now has got a dock just for cruise ships. He helped to do all this things while he kept IBI (property tax on houses) very low, lower than any other provincial capital, but Toledo. Moreover he had enough time to became member of the Senate.
Mr. De la Torre was intrumental in building many museums in Málaga, even a russian museum and the French Pompidou Museum. That's why he was awarded with the Pushkin medal by the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin and with the Legion of Honour of the French Repuplic. Culture is a diplomatic tool in a city with increasing number of bilingual schools (english-spanish and french-spanish).
If everything is OK, the next achievement in the city will be to finish the underground conection between the railway station and the center of the city which will make easier for all the students to reach the university in Teatinos neighbourhood.
But Mr. De la Torre has got a problem. He hasn't got a clear successor in his team.
He worked for a while as an agricultural engineer, but he was a polician to the core. He joined Reforma Democrática (right-wing party), however he left it. Then he founded his own party where he was the president and afterwards he made his own party to join UCD (Unión de Centro Democrático) which led Spain to democracy. And... he got elected for Congress in 1977 the one that approved the Constitution of 1978. He helped as a member of provisional government of Andalusia to set the autonomous regional parliament known as Junta de Andalucía.
On 23th of february, Congress was kidnaped by a bunch of Guardias Civiles (some sort militarized policemen), it was a coup d'état and all communications with the outside world were severed. But Francisco de la Torre got a small radio and, while he pretended to have a nap, listened to the radio channel, Cadena Ser in order to hear news. And he carefully transmited any information to the rest of congressmen.
After the putsch, UCD was defeated and torn apart. Francisco de la Torre had to pay some loans given to his party and from 1982 to 1995 kept a low profile in politics without any political post in the administration. But he lobbied to get a high speed train conection for Málaga. In 1995 he was in the PP (Partido Popular or People's Party, a right wing party) and ran as an independent member of the party in the mayoral elections for Málaga city. His party won and his boss, Celia Villalobos (a former comunist militant, by then in PP), became the mayor. She was great campaining, but she lacks of qualifications for the job. However Mr. de la Torre got the Council of urban planning which means that he managed the most important department in the townhall just before the real state bubble. In Málaga province was right in the centre of that bubble which popped in 2007-2008.
Anybody who hears Francisco's voice knows that his is as boring as the ex-vice President of USA, Dick Cheney. But... in 2000 he became mayor of Málaga. And since then many people acknowledge that Mr. De la Torre was a gentleman who hardly never stayed behind closed doors, but who has always avoided political bickering and too high political ambitions. He was able to deal politely with Podemos (a populist leftist party) and with Ciudadanos which is his best ally and maybe the most demanding too. Ciudadanos likes to make any political official involved in corruption cases be sacked. Francisco de la Torre like to keep them longer.
Since 2000 Málaga got the cherished high speed train conection with Madrid and the first line of Málaga underground was built, the bypass roads were lengthened and the Málaga airport and the harbour were enlarged. Málaga now has got a dock just for cruise ships. He helped to do all this things while he kept IBI (property tax on houses) very low, lower than any other provincial capital, but Toledo. Moreover he had enough time to became member of the Senate.
Mr. De la Torre was intrumental in building many museums in Málaga, even a russian museum and the French Pompidou Museum. That's why he was awarded with the Pushkin medal by the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin and with the Legion of Honour of the French Repuplic. Culture is a diplomatic tool in a city with increasing number of bilingual schools (english-spanish and french-spanish).
If everything is OK, the next achievement in the city will be to finish the underground conection between the railway station and the center of the city which will make easier for all the students to reach the university in Teatinos neighbourhood.
But Mr. De la Torre has got a problem. He hasn't got a clear successor in his team.
lunes, 6 de mayo de 2019
What's wrong with Popular Party in Spain?
Since 1977, the Popular Party (PP) has been in power for 14 years. This party was supposed to be conservative, catholic, democratic, "liberal" (in Spain, "liberal" means pro-free-market), controler of public spending and a staunch defender of national unity. At least, it was what many Spaniards, we expected from that party.
The founder of party was Fraga Iribarne. Mr. Iribarne was minister of Tourism and Information during the Francisco Franco's dictatorship and one of the author of Constitution of 1978. He became congressman, senator and a successful president of region of Galicia and Fidel Castro's friend. He was hated, admired, loved and despised by foes and friends.
Mr Iribarne never became Prime Minister (or as we say President of Government) nor head of state, since Spain is a kingdom. Eventually in 1996 Jose María Aznar (PP) got to the Presidency (8 years) and in 2011, Mariano Rajoy (PP) stayed in power almost 7 years. He was sacked by Congress because of a corruption case in his headquarters party.
Over the years, PP lost its identity. This was his path to perdition.
No longer democratic. PP said that the would make reforms to make our judicial system independent again. Instead of that, PP kept and strengthened the tradition of controlling the judicial system by General Council of the Judiciary (aka Consejo General del Poder Judicial or CGPJ) whose many of its member are chosen by Congress and not by judges. PP believes that a woman beaten by a man has more rights than a man beaten by a woman or a woman beaten by a woman. Before it used to think that men and women should have equal justice under the law.
No longer controler of public spending. Spain had a target, getting in the monetary union, that's why we use euros intead of pesetas (our former national currency). In order to join the euro, Spain had to lower deficit and public spending (less than 60% of the Gross Domestic Product). So the government cut down on both. But in 2004 with Jose Luis Rodríguez Zapatero (PSOE) and in 2011 Mariano Rajoy in the government, the public spending skyrocketed. With Mr. Rajoy, public spending growth was 6 times as big as the GDP growth. The problem lies in the autonomous regions, they spend money on matters that the central government can handle in a more efficient way.
No longer pro-free-market. Jose María Aznar tried to lower taxes, but Mr. Rajoy shoot up taxes to levels that the comunist party could not confess publicly. PP did not support freelance workers.
No longer defender of national unity. PP understood that the autonomous regions were dividing people through propaganda in the media and in the regional education system. They knew that the autonomous governments use regional languages and ideological selection like obstacles and barriers to keep privileges. But PP kept strengthening regional powers. The president of Galicia is Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP) is seen like a galician nationalist who does not believe in freedom of education.
No longer catholic. PP was supposed to defend catholic values, but that's what they seemed to do when they are in the opposition party and they kept abortion rights, abortion pills, gay marriage, transsexual laws for everyone even minors. Sex reassignment surgery is paid by social security in Spain, thus for "free" for everyone.
PP knows that there is a cultural war against the christian catholic values and Spain, but it often avoids the ideological battle.
PP is conservative. Why? They keep the bulk of laws and policies of PSOE (Socialist Worker Party of Spain).
In the last election lost half of its seats in Congress and a lot of senators. Now PP is nearing bankruptcy. In Spain, political parties are funded by state, if they get good results in the elections.
Since the last elections, PP complains that his voters went to Ciudadanos (centrist party) and Vox (populist right). But PP has not acknowledged publicly that they chaged and many of its voters don't. The many voters of voters felt betrayed. The leader of PP, Pablo Casado is powerless and some important members of his party left to be part of Ciudadanos and Vox. And in PP now there is a new strong man, Alberto Nuñez Feijó who Mr. Casado is forced to accept like an ally.
The founder of party was Fraga Iribarne. Mr. Iribarne was minister of Tourism and Information during the Francisco Franco's dictatorship and one of the author of Constitution of 1978. He became congressman, senator and a successful president of region of Galicia and Fidel Castro's friend. He was hated, admired, loved and despised by foes and friends.
Mr Iribarne never became Prime Minister (or as we say President of Government) nor head of state, since Spain is a kingdom. Eventually in 1996 Jose María Aznar (PP) got to the Presidency (8 years) and in 2011, Mariano Rajoy (PP) stayed in power almost 7 years. He was sacked by Congress because of a corruption case in his headquarters party.
Over the years, PP lost its identity. This was his path to perdition.
No longer democratic. PP said that the would make reforms to make our judicial system independent again. Instead of that, PP kept and strengthened the tradition of controlling the judicial system by General Council of the Judiciary (aka Consejo General del Poder Judicial or CGPJ) whose many of its member are chosen by Congress and not by judges. PP believes that a woman beaten by a man has more rights than a man beaten by a woman or a woman beaten by a woman. Before it used to think that men and women should have equal justice under the law.
No longer controler of public spending. Spain had a target, getting in the monetary union, that's why we use euros intead of pesetas (our former national currency). In order to join the euro, Spain had to lower deficit and public spending (less than 60% of the Gross Domestic Product). So the government cut down on both. But in 2004 with Jose Luis Rodríguez Zapatero (PSOE) and in 2011 Mariano Rajoy in the government, the public spending skyrocketed. With Mr. Rajoy, public spending growth was 6 times as big as the GDP growth. The problem lies in the autonomous regions, they spend money on matters that the central government can handle in a more efficient way.
No longer pro-free-market. Jose María Aznar tried to lower taxes, but Mr. Rajoy shoot up taxes to levels that the comunist party could not confess publicly. PP did not support freelance workers.
No longer defender of national unity. PP understood that the autonomous regions were dividing people through propaganda in the media and in the regional education system. They knew that the autonomous governments use regional languages and ideological selection like obstacles and barriers to keep privileges. But PP kept strengthening regional powers. The president of Galicia is Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP) is seen like a galician nationalist who does not believe in freedom of education.
No longer catholic. PP was supposed to defend catholic values, but that's what they seemed to do when they are in the opposition party and they kept abortion rights, abortion pills, gay marriage, transsexual laws for everyone even minors. Sex reassignment surgery is paid by social security in Spain, thus for "free" for everyone.
PP knows that there is a cultural war against the christian catholic values and Spain, but it often avoids the ideological battle.
PP is conservative. Why? They keep the bulk of laws and policies of PSOE (Socialist Worker Party of Spain).
In the last election lost half of its seats in Congress and a lot of senators. Now PP is nearing bankruptcy. In Spain, political parties are funded by state, if they get good results in the elections.
Since the last elections, PP complains that his voters went to Ciudadanos (centrist party) and Vox (populist right). But PP has not acknowledged publicly that they chaged and many of its voters don't. The many voters of voters felt betrayed. The leader of PP, Pablo Casado is powerless and some important members of his party left to be part of Ciudadanos and Vox. And in PP now there is a new strong man, Alberto Nuñez Feijó who Mr. Casado is forced to accept like an ally.
martes, 30 de abril de 2019
Getting a new governmet in Spain
More than 175 seats are required to secure enough support for a new government in Spain, since congress has 350 seats.
PSOE (Socialist Workers Party of Spain) was the winner in the last elections, but it got 123 seats, so fell short of a majority. The leader of PSOE is the incumbent Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez.
What to do now?
1st Option: Two parties agreement
Well, the obvious solution is that PSOE and Ciudadanos (a centrist party with 57 seats in Congress) make 180 seats. Banco Santanter (one of the two biggest banks in Spain) in a report sent to big clients stated that such an agreement would please the markets. But Ciudadanos has sworn not to support PSOE to form a government. But if they form a government, they will be willing to negotiate big deals at state level.
2nd Option: "Frankestein government"
It is weird, but not impossible.
PSOE (123 seats) + Podemos (35 seats) + ERC (15 seats) + Guanyem (7 seats) = 180 seats
-Podemos is a populist left-wing party whose leader, Pablo Iglesias, loves comunism and south american populism.
-ERC (Republican Left of Catalonia) is a nationalist catalonian party which supports indepedence for catalonia and whose leader, Oriol Junqueras (now in jail), is accused rebellion and sedition.
-Guanyem is the sister party of Podemos in Catalonia which supports nationalist parties in a way that does not destroy the country but it weakens Spain.
It is known as "Frankestein government", because this parties have contradictory goals and interests.
3rd option: Operation Unthinkable
It's an idea of CEOE (the organisation that represents the big corporations of Spain). PP (Popular Party, conservative, with 66 seats) and Ciudadanos abstein from voting, so PSOE, at least, gets a majority of votes even if it does not reach 176 seats. It is hard to believe, because Ciudadanos does not seem to accept that idea and the PP has never done it in the last 40 years. It is not expected to happen.
4th option: New elections
Of course there are more options, but they are not likely.
Explanation: In Spain, anything said about politics by big companies can be used like political ammunition by leftist parties. But big companies may be afraid of an looming world public debt crisis and they need a reliable government ready to tackle problems without revolutions.
PSOE (Socialist Workers Party of Spain) was the winner in the last elections, but it got 123 seats, so fell short of a majority. The leader of PSOE is the incumbent Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez.
What to do now?
1st Option: Two parties agreement
Well, the obvious solution is that PSOE and Ciudadanos (a centrist party with 57 seats in Congress) make 180 seats. Banco Santanter (one of the two biggest banks in Spain) in a report sent to big clients stated that such an agreement would please the markets. But Ciudadanos has sworn not to support PSOE to form a government. But if they form a government, they will be willing to negotiate big deals at state level.
2nd Option: "Frankestein government"
It is weird, but not impossible.
PSOE (123 seats) + Podemos (35 seats) + ERC (15 seats) + Guanyem (7 seats) = 180 seats
-Podemos is a populist left-wing party whose leader, Pablo Iglesias, loves comunism and south american populism.
-ERC (Republican Left of Catalonia) is a nationalist catalonian party which supports indepedence for catalonia and whose leader, Oriol Junqueras (now in jail), is accused rebellion and sedition.
-Guanyem is the sister party of Podemos in Catalonia which supports nationalist parties in a way that does not destroy the country but it weakens Spain.
It is known as "Frankestein government", because this parties have contradictory goals and interests.
3rd option: Operation Unthinkable
It's an idea of CEOE (the organisation that represents the big corporations of Spain). PP (Popular Party, conservative, with 66 seats) and Ciudadanos abstein from voting, so PSOE, at least, gets a majority of votes even if it does not reach 176 seats. It is hard to believe, because Ciudadanos does not seem to accept that idea and the PP has never done it in the last 40 years. It is not expected to happen.
4th option: New elections
Of course there are more options, but they are not likely.
Explanation: In Spain, anything said about politics by big companies can be used like political ammunition by leftist parties. But big companies may be afraid of an looming world public debt crisis and they need a reliable government ready to tackle problems without revolutions.
lunes, 29 de abril de 2019
What is VOX?
I guess you have been reading about the surge of the "far-right" party VOX in Spain. BBC said this "Spain election: Socialists win amid far-right breakthrough" and The Guardian this "Spanish election: socialists win amid far-right gains for Vox party".
Well... Vox is a populist conservative party. It got 24 seats out of 350 seats for Congress. Vox opposes radical anti-western feminism, LGTBQ ideology and illegal migration. Vox defends national unity and wants to do away with regional governments, since VOX believes it is dangerous for the national unity of Spain.
Why did it have some success?
-Because in Congress there was not right wing national party.
The "conservative" party PP (Popular Party) left all his ideals related to the protection of heterosexual families, they didn't care about the huge amount of abortions performed in Spain and they don't bother to speak the rise of the amount of transgender minors in Spain and they support the spread of LGTBQ ideology by force in public schools and they suppress freedom of education in schools. In the economic policies the Popular Party supports the encrease of public spending to get out of the economic crisis.
Thus the Popular Party lost more than three million voters and half of its seats in Congress. Vox got 2.6 millions votes.
-Because VOX was labelled as a bunch of extremist and promoted by PSOE (Spanish Socialist Workers Party) and Podemos (a populist leftist party).
Why? I guess they knew that by spliting right wing voters they could make PP lose. at the same time, they may have scared left wing voters in order to force them to vote for PSOE. Some polls said that VOX was going to get 34 seats and, even, a piece of fake news said 70 seat. "Mission accomplished".
Fun fact: PP and VOX got all together 8 millions votes and 90 seats, meanwhile PSOE got 7.4 millions votes and 123 seats.
Why? Spain uses the D'Hondt method to alocate seats, those who get more votes in provinces get more seats than those that they get with a proportional method.
Well... Vox is a populist conservative party. It got 24 seats out of 350 seats for Congress. Vox opposes radical anti-western feminism, LGTBQ ideology and illegal migration. Vox defends national unity and wants to do away with regional governments, since VOX believes it is dangerous for the national unity of Spain.
Why did it have some success?
-Because in Congress there was not right wing national party.
The "conservative" party PP (Popular Party) left all his ideals related to the protection of heterosexual families, they didn't care about the huge amount of abortions performed in Spain and they don't bother to speak the rise of the amount of transgender minors in Spain and they support the spread of LGTBQ ideology by force in public schools and they suppress freedom of education in schools. In the economic policies the Popular Party supports the encrease of public spending to get out of the economic crisis.
Thus the Popular Party lost more than three million voters and half of its seats in Congress. Vox got 2.6 millions votes.
-Because VOX was labelled as a bunch of extremist and promoted by PSOE (Spanish Socialist Workers Party) and Podemos (a populist leftist party).
Why? I guess they knew that by spliting right wing voters they could make PP lose. at the same time, they may have scared left wing voters in order to force them to vote for PSOE. Some polls said that VOX was going to get 34 seats and, even, a piece of fake news said 70 seat. "Mission accomplished".
Fun fact: PP and VOX got all together 8 millions votes and 90 seats, meanwhile PSOE got 7.4 millions votes and 123 seats.
Why? Spain uses the D'Hondt method to alocate seats, those who get more votes in provinces get more seats than those that they get with a proportional method.
martes, 19 de febrero de 2019
Spain, what a country!
Spain is hard to understand. This country has a long history, too many stories and even legends. It is filled with passion, hate, love, greatness, pettiness, (wonderful) successes, failures (some of them) of epic proportions, dispair and hope. It is a european country, even if we tend to believe that everybody is doing better in Europe or, for that matter, in the rest of world.
Spain has imperfect lovely people (not everybody, my mother is perfect) and an imperfect system, however miracously it keeps moving forward.
Spain has imperfect lovely people (not everybody, my mother is perfect) and an imperfect system, however miracously it keeps moving forward.
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